China says population grew last year, refuting Financial Times report of first decline in nearly 60 years

The Financial Times reported earlier this week that the latest census figures were expected to show nation’s population slipping to less than 1.4 billion
A drop in China’s population would be the first since a two-year decline in 1960-61 due to the impact of the Great Famine

China's population

Sidney Leng

Published: 2:45pm, 29 Apr 2021

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China’s population continued to grow last year, authorities said on Thursday, refuting an earlier media report that suggested it could fall for the first time in nearly 60 years.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a short statement that China’s population kept growing in 2020, and detailed data would be released in the upcoming seventh population census results.

China’s population continued to grow in 2020, and specific data will be released in the seventh national census communique

NBS

“China’s population continued to grow in 2020, and specific data will be released in the seventh national census communique,” said NBS statement said.

It came after the Financial Times reported earlier this week that the population of the world’s second-largest economy could have more deaths than births for the first time since 1961.

A drop in China’s population would be the first since a two-year decline in 1960-61 due to the impact of the Great Famine. The population fell by around 10 million in 1960 and a further 3.4 million in 1961 before rebounding by 14.4 million in 1962, according to official figures.

Chinese ministries have used the 1.4 billion population figure since 2018.

Even if the total population does not fall immediately, the Chinese government has said in the past that the annual gap between the number of newborns and the number of deaths will shrink significantly to around 1 million people over the next five years.

In its most recent estimate in November last year, the government said it expected China’s population to peak in 2027.

I estimated the number of new births in China in 2020 to be over 12 million, it will fall to around 11 million this year, and then drop by another 1 million in 2022

He Yafu

But He Yafu, an independent expert on China’s demographics, expects the population to fall in 2022 as the number of births falls to nearly 10 million and the number of deaths surpasses 10 million.

“I estimated the number of new births in China in 2020 to be over 12 million, it will fall to around 11 million this year, and then drop by another 1 million in 2022,” He said.

The NBS was expected to publish the results of the once-a-decade census by the end of April, but according to state media on Thursday, an official release has not been confirmed as data is still being processed. It added that there will be an official announcement before the release of the data.

China conducted its seventh national population census in November and December, and a huge range of personal and household information pertaining to age, education, occupation, migration and marital status of people living in the world’s most populous nation was gathered.

Because of the vast number of people surveyed, it will in theory provide the most accurate information on changes to China’s population and be used as a key resource for future planning.

The decennial census is key to gauging changes in the size and diversity of China’s population, making it an essential tool for future government policies. Beijing is currently developing its 14th five-year plan that will set economic and social targets for the 2021-25 period, and census data will play a part.

02:19

China begins once-in-a-decade census to gather details about its 1.4 billion population

The previous six population censuses were conducted in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010.

Over the past decade, annual government data has shown that the makeup of China’s population has shifted rapidly, with the number of elderly rising and new births declining, despite the abolition of the nation’s notorious one-child policy.

From 2000-10, the working-age population between 15 and 59 grew as a share of the total population, from 66 per cent to 70 per cent. But by the end of 2019, the ratio had fallen to 64 per cent, below the level recorded in 2000.

At the same time, the ratio of people aged 60 and above rose by 3 percentage points to 13 per cent in the decade to 2010, and the ratio continued upwards to 19 per cent at the end of last year.

Is China concerned about its population?

Last year, a total 10.035 million newborns were recorded in the household registration system, known as hukou in China, down from 11.79 million in 2019, according to figures released by the Ministry of Public Security in February.

The figure is not China’s official birth rate for 2020, as the hukou system does not include the entire population, but adds to data released by some Chinese provinces for last year, which showed that birth rates in some regions declined more than 30 per cent in 2020 from a year earlier.

The world’s most populous country has yet to confirm its official birth rate figure for the coronavirus-hit 2020, although expectations are for a further decline after Chinese mothers gave birth to 14.65 million babies in 2019, which was the lowest level since 1961 and down from 15.23 million in 2018.